Development and Evaluation of the Forecast Models for Daily Pollen Allergy
2012
Kim, K.R., National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Park, K.J., National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Lee, H.R., National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Kim, M.J., National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Choi, Y.J., National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Oh, J.W., Hanyang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
There are increasing number of allergic patients due to the increasing outdoor activities and allergenic pollens by local climate changes. Korea Meteorological Administration provides daily forecasts for pollen allergy warnings on the Internet. The forecast models are composed of pollen concentration models and risk grade levels. The accuracy of the models was determined in terms of risk grade. Pollen concentration models were developed using the observed data during from 2001 to 2006 and accuracy was validated against the data during from 2010 to 2011. The accuracy was different from location to location. The accuracy for most tree species was higher in April than that in May. The accuracy for weed species was higher in October than in September. Our result suggest that the models presented in this study can be used to estimate daily number and risk grade of pollens.
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