Food price volatility and natural hazards in Pakistan
2014
Cheng Fang | Sanogo, I.
Recently there has been a marked increase in the number of countries facing food crises. Some of the underlying causes have included higher global food commodity price and increased volatility, higher frequency of severe natural disasters and political crises. National and global methods for prompt assessments are weak in supporting timely responses to food crises in many developing countries. While many sudden-onset natural disasters leave little time for assessment and response, man-made disasters present even more challenges to conducting increasingly complex and in-depth analyses. Therefore, there has been an urgent need to develop an effective Early Warning System that signals potential shocks and allows a quick response to crises. This report presents such a system: a shock impact modeling system (SISMOD) that was developed jointly by WFP and FAO, to simulate the impacts of shocks on household food consumption. The SISMOD builds on existing nationally representative household survey data. This model reduces the need for in-depth nationwide assessments, which can then be limited to the most affected areas and populations. Geographic and community targeting is made possible as the SISMOD provides estimates of the proportion of undernourished people by livelihood, income group and geographical area. It is being piloted in selected Low- Income Food- Deficit Countries (LIFDCs) that are highly vulnerable to reoccurring crises.
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