Per capita rice consumption in the Philippines: reasons behind increases
2013
Francisco, S. R. | Mataia, A. B. | Eusebio, A. M. | Sanguyo, E. B. | Constantino, Ma. A. S. | Causon, E. D. | Quilloy, K. | Sombillia, M.
Data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) showed an increasing trend in the per capita rice consumption (PCRC) in the Philippines, opposite to the decreasing trend in other ASEAN countries. This study tried to determine the reasons for the increasing PCRC in the Philippines using survey and secondary data from BAS [Bureau of Statistics] and FNRI. The increasing annual PCRC can be explained by two factors: 1) substitutions from carbohydrate rich food such as corn to rice in major corn-eating provinces; and 2) over/under estimated parameters in the Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) used in estimating PCRC. The estimated elasticity of substitution between rice and corn indicated that a 1% increase in the price of corn grits would raise PCRC by 0.31%. The overestimated parameters in the supply side and the underestimated parameters in the demand side of the SUA framework also increased the annual PCRC. The milling recovery overestimated PCRC by 3.36%, while seeding rate, feeds and wastage by 0.03 and 0.93%, respectively. The aggregate effect was a 4.62% overestimation of PCRC. Rice smuggling apprehensions was negatively correlated with PCRC. The following recommendations were identified: 1) the parameters used in the SUA should be adjusted to have a realistic estimate of supply and demand of rice; 2) domestic price of rice should be made competitive in the world market to discourage smuggling; and 3) there is a need for policy to encourage more production and consumption of major rice substitutes such as corn, particularly white corn, sweet potato, banana and cassava to help fast-track the achievement of the country's goal of managing rice consumption, specifically towards the diversification of food staples.
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