Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pests introduction for the EU territory

The aim of this report is to provide EFSA with probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory through non-edible plant products or plants. We first provide a conceptualization of two types of pathway models. The individual based PM simulates an individual consignment (or a population of such consignment) by describing the stochastic change in the state of the individual consignment over time and space. The flow-based PM, simulates the flow of infested product over time and space, without distinguishing individual consignments. We show how these two conceptualisations are mathematically related, and present, as a show case, both models for cut flowers. Second, we developed PMs for five product groups: round wood, sawn wood, cut flowers, plants for planting and seeds. For each product group we have developed a case-study (combination of product, origin and pest) to illustrate the use of the pathway models: (1) oak wood from the USA and Ceratocystis fagacearum, (2) Coniferous sawn wood from China and Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, (3) Cut orchids from Thailand and Thrips palmi, (4) Pot orchids from Thailand and Thrips palmi, and (5) Tomato seeds and Clavibacter michiganensis subsp. michiganensis from outside the European Union. An uncertainty analysis on the models shows that the pest species-specific parameters appear to be sensitive and uncertain. Third, a practical guidance is provided on i) how to develop a PM, ii) the application of PMs in @Risk (a plugin for MS Excel), and iii) application in R. Finally, future research topics are defined. Further work is needed on interpretation of results, linking quantitative outcomes of pathway modelling to pest risk scoring guidance, and evaluation of management options using pathway models.