Models for forecasting the price of wheat and maize in Serbia
2019
Novković, Nebojša (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2419-5765) | Mutavdžić, Beba (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7631-0465) | Ivanišević, Dragan | Drinić, Ljiljana | Vukelić, Nataša (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7516-9204)
This paper examines the annual average price of two basic and economically most important cereals in Serbia: wheat and maize. The purpose of this research is to predict the future pricing trends on the basis of the wheat and maize price analysis over a longer period of time. Firstly, the average annual prices expressed in dinars per ton were converted into the prices expressed in EUR. Subsequently, the prices thus obtained were processed using descriptive statistics, and utilized to make predictions for the next five years (2018-22). The predictions were made using the ARIMA model. The forecast obtained indicates that the prices of maize will not be as stable as those of wheat. In the forecast period, the maize price will range from EUR 127.5 to 134 per ton. In the last two years of the period under consideration, the price of maize will stabilize at around EUR 132 per ton.
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