Models of price development on world market for cocoa beans
2008
Pavel Syrovátka | Samuel A. Darkwah
This paper is focused on the modelling and simulating the development of the price of cocoa beans on the world market. The developed models were based on the dependence of the level of the world price of cocoa beans on the world stock to grindings ratio of the beans in the last crop year. The ICCO databases from 1960/1961 to 2005/2006 crop years were used for the estimation of the parameters in the investigated forms of the price model. The linear and logarithmic-linear categories of the price models were studied in this paper. Within the linear forms of the price models; the single linear construction and the linear construction with dummy time variable were specified and tested. Within the logarithmic-linear category of the price models; the error correction model and autoregressive model were examined. From the point of view of statistical verification and from the low value of deviation of the simulated world price of cocoa beans for the 2005/2006 period from the actual price level of price for this crop period, the logarithmic-linear form of model with the error correction achieved the best results. Acceptable results were also obtained by means of the modified price model with the error correction component. By using the logarithmic-linear form of error correction model, the world price of the cocoa beans for the crop period 2006/2007 will achieve the following value 1047 SDR · t−1.Under the modified error correction model, the level of the world price will be 1050 SDR · t−1.
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