Rice market integration in Indonesia: a cointegration analysis

英语. This article analyses integration of rice markets using cointegration test. The cointegration bivariate system were estimated in both directions. Cointegration analysis based on the Engle and Granger model, namely CRDW and ADF, is applied. Granger (cause) analysis applied to cointegrated markets, to find central and regional markets. The results show that most of rice prices are stationary of order 1. It is concluded that there seems to be long run relationships between markets which are relatively close to each other. Percentage of cointegrated market for rice is 46 percent out of 56 combinations. This high cointegration mainly due to marketing system of rice which is strongly controlled by the government. Hence rice price is subject to a controlled trade regime and floor/ceiling price. Rice prices is represented by monthly wholesale price. The periode covered in this study is 1979-1995. It was concluded that BULOG'S Policies in controlling rice market to avoid market segmented did not work as expected

未知. Tulisan ini mencoba melihat integrasi pasar beras dengan menggunakan uji kointegrasi (cointegration test). Pendugaan kointegrasi pada bivariate sistem dilakukan dengan memperlakukan setiap peubah endogenous dan exogenous secara bergantian (dua arah). Pada analisis ini digunakan model Engle dan Granger yang disebut Cointegrating Regression Durbin Watson (CRDW) dan Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). Selanjutnya analisis sebab-akibat Granger diterapkan pada pasar-pasar yang berkointegrasi untuk menentukan pasar sentral dan pasar regional. Hasil pengujian stationarity menunjukkan bahwa pada umumnya harga beras stationary pada order 1, sedangkan hasil uji kointegrasi memperlihatkan bahwa tidak semua pasar yang letaknya berdekatan berintegrasi satu sama lain. Dari 56 kombinasi hanya terdapat 26 kombinasi pasar yang berkointegrasi. Data harga beras yang digunakan adalah harga perdagangan beras dari tahun 1979-1995. Hasil pengujian ini menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan kontrol harga yang dilaksanakan oleh BULOG tidak dapat mencegah terjadinya segmentasi pasar