Modeling of geographical-climatic distribution pattern of Tetranychus urticae in the climate of Razavi Khorasan province
2022
Rezaie, Maryam | JavanNezhad, Reza
AbstractThe two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae is one of the cosmopolite pests, which attack many agricultural and greenhouse plants. Recognizing the distribution of this mite using climate data can be of great help in better pest management. In this research, the MaxEnt model was used to study potential distribution of two-spotted mite in several stations (orchards) of Razavi Khorasan province. Modeling the distribution of the mite was based on six environmental predictors and presence records including maximum temperature of the hottest month of the year, minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year, average temperature of the hottest season of the year, average temperature of the coldest season of the year, precipitation the warmest season of the year and the coldest rainy season of the year among the 19 climatic variables. ROC curve analysis and the area below the AUC curve was used to evaluate the modeling results. According to the Jacknife test, variables of the temperature of the coldest season of the year, average temperature of the warmest season of the year and minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year were the most contributing in mite distribution modeling in this province and average temperature of the coldest season of the year was more important. The area below the AUC curve equal to 0.75 indicates the model obtained for this species has high accuracy. The area below the ROC curve is 0.75 and for the data used to validate the model is 0.65, which indicates the acceptable detection power of the model.
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