Impacts of future climate-induced agricultural land use change on current farmland price, toward an agent-based modeling approach
2023
Fromage, Mathilde | Huettel, Silke | Piet, Laurent | INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro) | Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen | Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires (SMART) ; Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Rennes Angers ; Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)
International audience
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]英语. Climate change is expected to affect the relative profitability of crops and other land uses, hence the value of land. At the intensive margin, yields and farmland returns may increase or decrease because of changes in the biophysical characteristics and processes, and adaptations of agricultural practices. At the extensive margin, farmers are likely to adapt to such new yield and return conditions by adjusting their crop choices. However, at the same time the overall quantity of available farmland may also alter due to urban growth, land degradation and ongoing land cover dynamics. That is, the value of farmland will be affected by expected but uncertain future returns and the timing of the adaptation process of the farming systems to the changing conditions. Using an expected present value model, we first investigate the implications of uncertain future land returns on the optimal timing of land use change and the value a farmer anticipates for their land. Second, we demonstrate how to implement this improved expectation formation into an agent-based model for land market agents’ decisions to sell or buy land. This offers investigating impacts of different climate change scenarios on farmland ownership and agricultural production structures.
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