A Study of methodologies for forecasting aquaculture development
1984
Growth in food production through aquaculture between 1975 and 1980 has been substantial but varying from country to country and product to product. This paper addresses the problem of analysing the causes of such differences in growth in aquaculture production in order (1) to predict future growth, and (2) to better understand how a rapid and rational growth of aquaculture industries can be promoted nationally, regionally and globally. The study concludes that the data currently available to FAO are quite inadequate, as yet, to make the required analyses. It nevertheless demonstrates that useful indications can be obtained even from the information presently available, and elaborates several approaches that could be usefully applied as soon as better data are available. The report calls attention to the utility of comparing changes in aquaculture to both the capture fisheries and agriculture in analyzing local, national and regional differences. Noting the markedly different levels of production among countries in relation to a variety of commonly employed indicators of agricultural resources, and corresponding differences in the problems of encouraging growth at different levels of intensity production, the authors define and contrast Aquaculturally Developed Countries and Aquaculturally Developing Countries. The resulting classification cuts across the more general Developing/Developed Country contrast. Finally a method is explored for assessing the relative importance of constraining factors based on a relatively subjective "expert rating" system, and an inidcation given of how a useful analytical model of trend analysis could be developed.
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出版者 FAO | Rome : FAO, 1984
