Transboundary transport of ozone pollution to a US border region: A case study of Yuma

High concentrations of ground-level ozone affect human health, plants, and animals. Reducing ozone pollution in rural regions, where local emissions are already low, poses challenge. We use meteorological back-trajectories, air quality model sensitivity analysis, and satellite remote sensing data to investigate the ozone sources in Yuma, Arizona and find strong international influences from Northern Mexico on 12 out of 16 ozone exceedance days. We find that such exceedances could not be mitigated by reducing emissions in Arizona; complete removal of state emissions would reduce the maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone in Yuma by only 0.7% on exceeding days. In contrast, emissions in Mexico are estimated to contribute to 11% of the ozone during these exceedances, and their reduction would reduce MDA8 ozone in Yuma to below the standard. Using satellite-based remote sensing measurements, we find that emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOₓ, a key photochemical precursor of ozone) increase slightly in Mexico from 2005 to 2016, opposite to decreases shown in the bottom-up inventory. In comparison, a decrease of NOₓ emissions in the US and meteorological factors lead to an overall of summer mean and annual MDA8 ozone in Yuma (by ∼1–4% and ∼3%, respectively). Analysis of meteorological back-trajectories also shows similar transboundary transport of ozone at the US-Mexico border in California and New Mexico, where strong influences from Northern Mexico coincide with 11 out of 17 and 6 out of 8 ozone exceedances. 2020 is the final year of the U.S.-Mexico Border 2020 Program, which aimed to reduce pollution at border regions of the US and Mexico. Our results indicate the importance of sustaining a substantial cooperative program to improve air quality at the border area.