Estimating broad-brush rebound effects for household energy consumption in the EU 28 countries and Norway: some policy implications of Odyssee data
2014
Galvin, Ray
Currently there is a strong policy commitment in European Union (EU) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to increase the energy efficiency of residential buildings, and it is widely assumed that this will naturally and automatically reduce domestic energy consumption. However, other factors such as fuel prices, wages, attitudes and lifestyles also influence energy consumption. This paper calculates broad-brush rebound effects based on changes in energy efficiency and energy consumption in each of the 28EU countries plus Norway, for the years 2000–2011. In doing so, it tests how well the assumption of energy efficiency leading to energy reduction stands up to scrutiny in these lands. It uses the EU’s Odyssee database for efficiency and consumption figures and a commonly employed econometric definition of the rebound effect as an energy-efficiency elasticity. Most older EU lands show rebound effects in the expected range of 0–50%. However, the range for newer EU countries is 100–550%, suggesting that energy efficiency increases are not a good predictor of energy consumption. A more in-depth look at one country, Germany, suggests these results underestimate the rebound effect significantly. This also identifies research needs for specific energy consumption determinants in each country, to find more precisely what is driving consumption levels.
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