Anthropic activities and the Legal Amazon: Estimative of impacts on forest and regional climate for 2030
2020
Amaral e Silva, Arthur | Braga, Matheus Quintão | Ferreira, Juliana | Juste dos Santos, Vitor | do Carmo Alves, Sabrina | Oliveira, Júlio César de | Calijuri, Maria Lucia
Created by the Law Nᵒ 1,806 of 1953 and updated to its original format by the Complementary Law Nᵒ. 31 of 1977, the Legal Amazon covers an area of approximately 5.2 million km², comprises nine Brazilian states, corresponding to around 61% of all Brazilian territory. In addition to the Amazon biome, the Legal Amazon covers part of Cerrado and Pantanal biomes. This region has suffered several impacts caused by the introduction of anthropic activity, mainly agriculture, leading to a high deforestation rate. As a way to mitigate the impacts in these areas, this paper aims to identify the possible variations in climatic variables and in the Legal Amazonian Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), generated from the increase of anthropic action. As well as to outline the predicted deforestation scenario and the anthropic activity for 2030, allowing an association between impact increase, the aforementioned variations and the level of degradation. To achieve the goals outlined here, the methodology is divided into 3 steps: definition of the study area, data collection and standardization, and processing and comparison of the data obtained (using the Land Change Modeler and Earth Trend Modeler interfaces). The results of this research corroborate to observe that, in the Legal Amazon, the forest has control over the climate. Changes caused by higher levels of anthropogenic action have a direct impact on vegetation; increase deforestation rates and cause temperature and rainfall variations. Was concluded that the non-adoption of actions to control natural vegetation removal increases deforestation, causing greater changes in NDVI levels, greater changes in the hydrological cycle and thermal control.
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