Nonlinear growth models for describing country's Lentil (Lens culinaris M.) production
2013
Iquebal, M. A. | Sarika,
Nonlinear statistical growth models play a very important role in understanding the dynamics of an agricultural system. Different nonlinear mechanistic growth models viz, monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were used to describe the country's lentil (Lens culinaris M.) production during 1970–71 to 2009–10. The parameters of these models were estimated using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for nonlinear estimation. Gompertz model was found to be most suitable for this dataset based on various goodness of fit criteria viz. Coefficient of determination (R₁²), Root mean squared error, Mean absolute error, Correlation between observed and predicted values and Percentage forecast error. The predicted lentil production for the year 2009–10 was 1.02 million tonnes where as the actual production was 1.03 million tonnes. From this study it was concluded that lentil production in India reached about 87% of its potential (with present technological status). So with around 5% intrinsic growth rate it has ample scope in increasing production in near future.
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