Implications of climatic heterogeneity for conservation of the Lesser Prairie‐Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus)

A geographic range is a heterogeneous matrix where the natural capability to support resident species varies from detrimental to optimal. Given this, the first priority for species conservation should be to determine where optimal environments exist. We used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to distinguish climatic characteristics associated with persistent leks from those at random locations in order to characterize the niche and potential distribution of the imperiled Lesser Prairie‐Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). Annual, brood period, and winter precipitation were the most important characteristics of the niche across the entire range, but maximum temperature during nesting was a key characteristic in the southern part of the range. Habitat suitability across the geographic range was multimodal but also consistent with a center‐periphery pattern. Western Kansas and Oklahoma and east‐central New Mexico contributed more than expected, whereas all other areas contributed less than expected, to habitat suitability of the geographic range. Lesser Prairie‐Chickens appear constrained on the western edge of their range by abiotic factors, namely aridity, unfavorable temperatures and sandy soils. Conversely, they appear constrained on the eastern edge by biotic factors, namely transition from mid‐grass to tallgrass prairie that results in dominance by the Greater Prairie‐Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido). Conserving Lesser Prairie‐Chickens will depend on maintaining persistent populations in western Kansas and Oklahoma and east‐central New Mexico, as well as expanding its distribution across Texas. Aridity, unfavorable temperatures, and a paucity of habitat make eastern Colorado and southeastern New Mexico challenging areas for persistence of this species. Climate change may make it more difficult for populations in New Mexico and adjacent parts of Texas to persist, but more favorable for populations in eastern Colorado. The potential difficulties for populations in the southern part of the range will make it increasingly important to conserve populations in western Kansas and Oklahoma.