Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis
1983
Grisley, William | Kellogg, Earl D.
The ability of agricultural decision makers to formulate logical expectations about the outcome of risky events in crop production and marketing is investigated. Measures of Northern Thailand farmers' perceptions of yield, price, and net income are attempted using an elicitation approach which includes a significant monetary reward. This approach is found to be feasible. The expectations derived are logical and consistent when compared to harvest results and farmers' actual production practices. Farmers' expectations about sources of risk and the correlation of socioeconomic characteristics with expectation accuracy are analyzed.
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