Spatiotemporal variations of water quality and their driving forces in the Yangtze River Basin, China, from 2008 to 2020 based on multi-statistical analyses

Water quality deterioration is a prominent issue threatening water security worldwide. As the largest river in China, the Yangtze River Basin is facing severe water pollution due to intense human activities. Analyzing water quality trends and identifying the corresponding driver factors are important components of sustainable water quality management. Thus, spatiotemporal characteristics of the water quality from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed by using a Mann–Kendall test and rescaled range analysis (R/S). In addition, multi-statistical analyses were used to determine the main driving factors of variation in the permanganate index (CODMₙ), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃–N) concentration, and total phosphorus (TP) concentration. The results showed that the mean concentrations of NH₃–N and TP decreased from 0.31 to 0.16 mg/L and 0.16 to 0.07 mg/L, respectively, from 2008 to 2020, indicating that the water quality improved during this period. However, the concentration of CODMₙ did not reduce remarkably. Based on R/S analysis, the NH₃–N concentration was predicted to continue to decrease from 2020 to 2033, whereas the CODMₙ concentration was forecast to increase, highlighting an issue of great concern. In terms of spatial distribution, water quality in the upstream was better than that of the mid-downstream. Multi-statistical analyses revealed that the temporal variation in water quality was predominantly influenced by tertiary industry (TI), the nitrogen fertilizer application rate (N-FAR), the phosphate fertilizer application rate (P-FAR), and the irrigation area of arable land (IAAL), with contribution rates of 15.92%, 14.65%, 3.46%, and 2.84%, respectively. The spatial distribution of CODMₙ was mainly influenced by TI, whereas that of TP was primarily determined by anthropogenic activity factors (e.g., N-FAR, P-FAR). This study provides deep insight into water quality evolution in the Yangtze River Basin that can guide water quality management in this region.