Modeling the sedimentary response of a large Pyrenean basin to global change

PURPOSE: Erosion processes at the catchment scale control a basin’s morphology and sediment patterns in the river network. Eroded sediments are transported and deposited downstream and may cause environmental problems and relevant effects on water storage and hydropower infrastructures. Quantification of water and sediment yield is complex due to the physical processes involved and their temporal and spatial variability, especially at the light of current global change. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Numerical models that use spatially distributed information constitute a useful tool for these estimates, when sufficient input data are available. In this study, we applied the hydrological and sedimentological TETIS model to determine the patterns of water and sediment yield in a large mountain catchment. Flow discharge data obtained from two gauged stations were used for calibration and validation of the hydrological sub-model. Data from two reservoir bathymetries at the outlet of the study area were used for calibration of the sedimentological sub-model. After model calibration, several scenarios of climate and land use change were simulated. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Climate scenarios show a general decrease in average annual precipitation and an increase in temperature, associated with an increase in extreme rainfall events. Global change scenarios lead to a counteracting effect between the increase in sediment transport during extreme events and the decrease in sediment erosion associated with afforestation following the abandonment of agricultural land. In the case of the most extreme climate scenario combined with total catchment deforestation, the model indicates a complete siltation of the reservoir by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Model performance emphasizes its potential as a tool for evaluating water and sediment yield for large catchments, as well as of its usefulness for water and sediment management in light of future climate and land use change scenarios.