Carbon emission efficiency measurement and influencing factor analysis of nine provinces in the Yellow River basin: based on SBM-DDF model and Tobit-CCD model

The Yellow River basin (YRB) is China’s most critical energy consumption and coal production area. The improvement of carbon emission reduction efficiency in this area is the key for the Chinese government to achieve the 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutral (“30.60”). Given this, this study first calculates the carbon emission efficiency of YRB from 2005 to 2019 based on the slack-based measured directional distance function (SBM-DDF) model and combined with Malmquist–Luenberger (ML) index and decomposes the carbon emission efficiency of each province. Then, a panel Tobit model with random effect is constructed to measure the influencing factors and their influence degree of carbon emission efficiency of YRB. Finally, the main influencing factors are selected, and policy suggestions on how to improve the carbon emission efficiency of each province are put forward with the help of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The results show that first, the carbon emission efficiency of each province is significantly different, but it shows a fluctuating upward trend on the whole. Second, the reasons for the rise or decline of the ML index in different provinces are different. Therefore, the development strategies of different provinces should be formulated from the perspective of accelerating technological progress and improving technical efficiency. Finally, the calculation results of influencing factors and coupling coordination degrees show that provinces with high coupling coordination degrees should focus on developing per capita power consumption and controlling per capita power consumption to consolidate the actual urbanization process and industrial structure adjustment. Provinces with low coupling coordination degrees should focus on maintaining the urbanization process and increasing the development of the tertiary industry. Therefore, to fundamentally reduce carbon emissions in YRB areas, we need to consider implementing differentiated emission reduction schemes based on national strategic objectives and in combination with the development characteristics of various provinces.