An integrated assessment for achieving the 2°C target pathway in China by 2030
2020
Xie, Yang | Liu, Xiaorui | Chen, Qi | Zhang, Shaohui
China submitted the Greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. To reduce the negative impact of global warming, a tighter target is needed, such as the 2-degree target. This study investigated how China could reach its emissions peak and decarbonize its economy through different key countermeasures in various sectors in line with the NDC and 2 °C targets by 2030. A dynamic CGE model is used to develop ten scenarios that contain two dimensions consisting of two stringency levels of carbon emission limitation and the availability of different low-carbon options. We found that in the baseline scenario, China’s total CO₂ emissions in 2030 would reach 14.7 Gt. To meet China’s NDC target, it is essential to develop non-fossil fuel energy, restrict the over-expansion of energy-intensive industries and improve end-use efficiency. Meanwhile, the global 2 °C target poses higher requirements for China to develop various non-fossil technologies both in electricity production and demand sectors, and vigorously promote low-carbon consumption pattern. Furthermore, we estimated the economic impacts and found that if low-carbon measures are adopted properly, the mitigation cost in 2030 could decline by 92 and 226 USD/ton-CO₂ under the NDC target and 2 °C target, respectively. Accordingly, GDP loss could fall from 3.8% to barely 0.004% under the NDC target, and from 11.6% to 1.6% under the 2 °C target. The welfare will almost not be affected significantly under all scenarios. Moreover, carbon reduction will also bring co-benefits on the air pollution improvement in China.
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