Prévisions d’avancée d’un biseau salé par une méthode stochastique en vue d’une gestion durable des eaux souterraines : application à l’aquifère de Korba (Tunisie) Pronósticos estocásticos de la intrusión de agua de mar en la gestión sustentable de agua subterránea: aplicación al acuífero de Korba (Túnez) 以地下水管理为目的海水入侵随机预测:在突尼斯Korba含水层的应用 Previsões estocásticas de intrusão marinha para uma gestão sustentável da água subterrânea: aplicação ao aquífero Korba (Tunísia) | Stochastic forecasts of seawater intrusion towards sustainable groundwater management: application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)
2013
Kerrou, Jaouher | Renard, Philippe | Cornaton, Fabien | Perrochet, Pierre
A stochastic study of long-term forecasts of seawater intrusion with an application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia) is presented. Firstly, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed, based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. Then, a new method was designed and used to construct a geostatistical model of the hydraulic conductivity field by combining lithological information and data from hydraulic tests. Secondly, the effects of the uncertainties associated with the pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field on the 3D density-dependent transient model were analysed separately and then jointly. The forecasts of the impacts of two different management scenarios on seawater intrusion in the year 2048 were performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations, accounting for uncertainties in the input parameters as well as possible changes of the boundary conditions. Combining primary and secondary data allowed maps of pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field to be constructed, despite a lack of direct data. The results of the stochastic long-term forecasts showed that, most probably, the Korba aquifer will be subject to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources.
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