Temporal and spatial dynamics of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus infection in the United States
2015
OBJECTIVE To measure incidence and estimate temporal and spatial dynamics of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) infection in US sow herds. ANIMALS 371 sow herds in the United States from 14 production companies. PROCEDURES The exponentially weighted moving average was used to monitor incident PRRSV infections for onset of an epidemic. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify areas at significantly high risk of PRRS epidemics. A χ2 test was used to estimate whether there were significant differences in the quarterly and annual PRRS incidence among time periods, and a bivariable logistic regression model was used to estimate whether PRRSV infection during a given year increased the odds of that herd being infected in the following year. RESULTS During the 4-year period of this study, 29% (91/319; 2009 to 2010), 33% (106/325; 2010 to 2011), 38% (135/355; 2011 to 2012), and 32% (117/371; 2012 to 2013) of the herds reported new infections. Weekly incidence was low during spring and summer and high during fall and winter. The exponentially weighted moving average signaled the onset of a PRRSV epidemic during the middle 2 weeks of October each year. Disease incidence was spatially clustered. Infection in the previous year increased the odds of infection in 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated a striking repeatability in annual PRRSV temporal and spatial patterns across 4 years of data among herds from 14 production companies, which suggested that efforts to control PRRSV at a regional level should continue to be supported.
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