Environmental lead reduces the resilience of bald eagle populations

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are considered a recovery success in the United States after rebounding from near extirpation due to widespread use of the insecticide dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) in the twentieth century. Although abundances of bald eagles have increased since DDT was banned, other contaminants have remained in the environment with unknown influence on eagle population trends. Ingestion of spent lead (Pb) ammunition, the source of Pb most available to eagles and other scavengers in the United States, is known to kill individual eagles, but the influence of the contaminant on overall population dynamics remains unclear, resulting in longstanding controversy over the continued legality of the use of Pb in terrestrial hunting ammunition. We hypothesized that mortalities from the ingestion of Pb reduced the long‐term growth rate and resiliency of bald eagles in the northeast United States over the last 3 decades. We used Holling's definition of resilience (the ability of a system to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters and still persist) to quantify how reduction in survival from Pb‐associated mortalities reduced the likelihood of population persistence. We used a population matrix model and necropsy records gathered between 1990 and 2018 from a 7‐state area to compare population dynamics under current versus hypothetical Pb‐reduced and Pb‐free scenarios. Despite a robust increase in eagle abundances in the northeast United States over that period, we estimated that deaths arising from ingestion of Pb was associated with a 4.2% (females) and 6.3% (males) reduction in the asymptotic long‐term growth rate (lambda). Comparison between real (current) and counterfactual (Pb‐reduced and Pb‐free) population dynamics indicated that the deaths from acute Pb poisoning were additive because the mortality events were associated with marked reduction in annual survival performance of hatchlings and reproductive females. These shifts in survival performance were further associated with a reduction in resilience for hatchling (95.4%) and breeding (81.6%) female eagles. Counterintuitively, the current conditions produced an increase in resilience (68.9%) for immature and non‐breeding female eagles over hypothetical Pb‐free conditions, suggesting that the population of eagles in the northeast United States reorganized (in a population dynamics sense) to ensure population expansion despite additive mortalities associated with Pb. This study can be used by state and federal wildlife managers or non‐governmental organizations to inform policy surrounding the use of lead ammunition or to educate hunters on the population‐scale effects of their ammunition choices.