Using a retrospective dynamic competition index to reconstruct forest succession

Understanding forest dynamics and stand structures is crucial for predicting forest succession. However, many forests have been altered due to century-long land-use practices, which complicates the reconstruction of past and current successional trajectories. For a better understanding of successional processes, we suggest studying the intra- and interspecific competition among single trees across time. We introduce a tree-ring based competition index to reconstruct the competitive dynamics of individual trees over time. This new retrospective dynamic competition index combines a temporal and a spatial component by calculating the yearly ratio between the basal area increments (bai) of the neighbouring trees and the subject tree. The new index is applied to mixed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) stands in the inner-Alpine dry-valley Valais, for which a change in species composition is hypothesised. The aim is to analyse current stand structures in terms of recent changes in the competitive interactions at the single tree level and to relate these competitive dynamics to land-use change and increasing drought due to climate change. On five plots, the positions of 456 trees were recorded and increment cores were taken to derive bai data. The individual dynamic competition index curves were aggregated in clusters, which define typical patterns of competitive dynamics in both tree species. A large percentage of the trees (87% in oak, 70% in pine) were clustered into a group of trees with constant competition at a relatively low level. However, a smaller group of pines (20%) had recently faced increasing competition. In addition, stand structure analyses indicated a change towards a higher proportion of oak. This change in the competitive ability between oak and pine was found to be related to drought, in that oak had a competitive advantage in dry years. Furthermore, the high proportion of dead branches in pines with decreasing competitive abilities indicated increasing competition for light as a consequence of natural development towards a later successional stage that favours the more shade-tolerant oak. The new retrospective dynamic competition index proved to be promising in studying forest succession. The tree-ring based method allows us to identify changes in the competitive ability of single trees with a high temporal resolution and without repeated assessments.