Jaguar distribution, biological corridors and protected areas in Mexico: from science to public policies

CONTEXT: Land use change, habitat loss and fragmentation are the major threats to jaguar conservation in Latin America. Here, we integrate the information of jaguar’s distribution to identify priority areas for its conservation. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the effect of topographic, anthropogenic and landscape variables on habitat suitability to evaluate potential core areas and biological corridors for jaguar conservation across Mexico. METHODS: We compiled a database of jaguar occurrence records, geospatial data-set of all Natural Protected Areas and using the expert criterion of the Mexican jaguar specialists to define Jaguar Geographic Regions; i.e. well-defined large units with similar ecological characteristics across the geographic range of jaguars in Mexico. We then conducted analyses of ecological niche models to identify Jaguar Conservation Units; i.e. core units with jaguar populations of 15 or more individuals. We used Least Cost Path and Circuit Theory analyses to define the Biological Corridors; i.e. regions with enough habitat to allow for jaguar dispersal along their geographic range, but putting emphasis in connecting Jaguar Conservation Units. RESULTS: We identified 5 Jaguar Geographic Regions (JGRs), 10 Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs), and 13 Biological Corridors to maintain the connectivity of jaguar’s populations across their whole geographic range in Mexico. Our results showed that JGRs cover 25% of the country but only 21% of those regions are currently protected in nature reserves. So, our study illustrates the importance of the creation of new protected areas or the implementation of other schemes of conservation to protect larger extensions of the jaguars’ habitat in Mexico. It also indicates that despite the reduction of jaguar range in Mexico, there are still relatively large and well conserved areas capable of maintaining jaguar populations. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are a fundamental tool to guide the conservation and management of jaguars in Mexico. Our findings indicate that public jaguar conservation policy to protect the remaining jaguar habitat in Mexico should include the following actions: i) Strengthen established protected areas, ii) Create new protected areas, iii) Implement sustainable development programs to stimulate land owners to protect their lands, and iv) Develop mitigation measures for infrastructure. Although the window of opportunity is closing, our results indicate that there is still time to save jaguars and the plethora of species that share their habitat in Mexico.