What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE

Rapid industrialization and urbanization accelerate land use and land cover change, resulting in problems of stability and health with ecosystem services losses. It remains unclear and needs to be detailed discussed what spatial–temporal characteristics of the production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) would be in a rapidly developing bay area under a certain development goal. A novel future land use simulation model integrated with a dual environment evaluation system consisting of the evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity and territorial spatial development suitability was conducted to predict the PLES in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in a multi-scenario view; and then we figured out the spatial–temporal changes of the PLES in the GBA during 2015–2035. Results suggest: 1) Using the DEE to determine conversion probability estimation helps to simulate and predict land use changes with high accuracy. Under the CUA scenario, the PLES account for 21.76%, 14.60% and 63.64%, respectively. The production space in Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Dongguan is dispersed, while the living space in Dongguan is clustered. The patch boundary of ecological space in Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen would become more complex. 2) The change of the PLES in the GBA is mainly manifested by the processes of production and ecological space transferring to living space even under CUA scenario, which mainly occurs on the edge of the existing living space, especially in Zhaoqing, Conghua District of Guangzhou, Longmen County and Boluo County of Huizhou. 3) With potential conflicts between production space and ecological space, more attention should be paid to reducing the occupation of basic farmland in ecological restoration in the GBA. The future PLES in the GBA would be characterized by the conflict between the living and non-living spaces and that between productive and ecological spaces. The predicted PLES under CUA scenario may provide a spatial reference for policy-making in the future territorial spatial development and construction of ecological security patterns in the GBA.