An Analysis of Future Private Timber Supply Potential in Western Oregon
2003
Schillinger, Randall R. | Adams, Darius M. | Latta, Gregory S. | Van Nalts, Adrienne K.
Projections of potential supply with volume-flow and market-based models suggest that western Oregon forest industry owners could sustain cut at recent levels, stemming the 40 yr declining trend in their harvest. NIPF owners could raise harvests to near historical peak levels. These harvests would entail oscillating long-run inventories under the market projection and stable to declining inventories in the even-flow case. Average clearcut age would decline over the projection. Forest industry management would shift toward plantations with thinning and early density control. NIPF management would continue to depend on natural regeneration with increased use of commercial thinning. Simulated riparian protection policies lower harvest roughly in proportion to the land base reduction, raise log prices, and drive up the price of land not subject to restrictions. The present value of future net returns to private timberland owners would decline. A policy to extend the minimum age of clearcut harvest could have large near-term impacts on both industrial and NIPF owners. Prices rise sharply, and harvest declines in the near term. In the longer term, the policy acts like an enforced supply expansion, raising harvest and depressing prices. Timberland owners lose both in terms of income and in the reduction of bare land values due to lower product prices and harvest timing restrictions.
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