Deep neural networks for spatiotemporal PM2.5 forecasts based on atmospheric chemical transport model output and monitoring data
2022
Kow, Pu-Yun | Chang, Li-Chiu | Lin, Chuan-Yao | Chou, Charles C.-K. | Chang, Fi-John
Reliable long-horizon PM₂.₅ forecasts are crucial and beneficial for health protection through early warning against air pollution. However, the dynamic nature of air quality makes PM₂.₅ forecasts at long horizons very challenging. This study proposed a novel machine learning-based model (MCNN-BP) that fused multiple convolutional neural networks (MCNN) with a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) for making spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ forecasts for the next 72 h at 74 stations covering the whole Taiwan simultaneously. Model configuration involved an ensemble of massive hourly air quality and meteorological monitoring datasets and the existing publicly-available PM₂.₅ simulated (forecasted) datasets from an atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model. The proposed methodology collaboratively constructed two CNNs to mine the observed data (the past) and the forecasted data from ACT (the future) separately. The results showed that the MCNN-BP model could significantly improve the accuracy of spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ forecasts and substantially reduce the forecast biases of the ACT model. We demonstrated that the proposed MCNN-BP model with effective feature extraction and good denoising ability could overcome the curse of dimensionality and offer satisfactory regional long-horizon PM₂.₅ forecasts. Moreover, the MCNN-BP model has considerably shorter computational time (5 min) and lower computational load than the compute-intensive ACT model. The proposed approach hits a milestone in multi-site and multi-horizon forecasting, which significantly contributes to early warning against regional air pollution.
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