Using meta-population models to guide conservation action

Biodiversity conservation is limited by resources, data, and time for execution. To maximize efficacy, it is best if conservation plans are strategically evaluated for cost, feasibility, and likely impact prior to implementation. We present a framework to systematically examine the likely impact of proposed conservation plans for threatened taxa. As a case study of this framework we use the national Action Plan for Seabird Conservation in New Zealand and 27 threatened seabirds identified for conservation interventions. To evaluate impact, we applied a recently developed seabird meta-population viability analysis model (seabird mPVA) that employs the most current population and adjustable demographic data to assess threatened seabird viability at a global scale under various management scenarios. This publicly available, web-based tool is intended to meet the needs of threatened seabird managers at the initial phase of conservation planning. We used the seabird mPVA to model population trends and potential seabird viability gains from conservation actions that include: bycatch mitigation, invasive species removal, and seabird translocation prescribed in the action plan for individual species. Our model’s ranking of New Zealand seabirds by current quasi-extinction vulnerability roughly correlated with the seabirds’ IUCN Red List status and New Zealand Threat Classification System. We found modeled conservation impact of proposed actions and assigned priority to be generally positively correlated, but variable in magnitude. If all prescribed conservations actions were implemented, our model predicted significant mitigation of quasi-extinction risk for nine species (Antipodean Albatross, Auckland Island Shag, Black-fronted Tern, Fairy Tern, Rough-faced Shag, Northern Royal Albatross, Pitt Island Shag, Stewart Island Shag, Yellow-eyed Penguin). This approach, and our model, can be adapted to other taxonomic groups to provide a consistent framing for the prioritization of species for conservation investment and predictions about the benefits of specific conservation actions for those species.