Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Huh, Sungjun; Kim, In-su

Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

2020

Huh, Sungjun | Kim, In-su

This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.

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