Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
2020
Huh, Sungjun | Kim, In-su
This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.
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书目信息
Economics letters
卷
196
页码
109541
ISSN
0165-1765
出版者
Elsevier B.V.
其它主题
Gdp growth forecast; E32; C53; Economic forecasting; Economic performance; Asymmetric forecast revision; E37
语言
英语
注释
Golden set
类型
Text; Journal Article
2024-02-28
MODS