Analysis of changes in air pollution quality and impact of COVID-19 on environmental health in Iran: application of interpolation models and spatial autocorrelation

In the global COVID-19 epidemic, humans are faced with a new challenge. The concept of quarantine as a preventive measure has changed human activities in all aspects of life. This challenge has led to changes in the environment as well. The air quality index is one of the immediate concrete parameters. In this study, the actual potential of quarantine effects on the air quality index and related variables in Tehran, the capital of Iran, is assessed, where, first, the data on the pollutant reference concentration for all measuring stations in Tehran, from February 19 to April 19, from 2017 to 2020, are monitored and evaluated. This study investigated the hourly concentrations of six particulate matters (PM), including PM2.5, PM10, and air contaminants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO). Changes in pollution rate during the study period can be due to reduced urban traffic, small industrial activities, and dust mites of urban and industrial origins. Although pollution has declined in most regions during the COVID-19 quarantine period, the PM2.5 rate has not decreased significantly, which might be of natural origins such as dust. Next, the air quality index for the stations is calculated, and then, the interpolation is made by evaluating the root mean square (RMS) of different models. The local and global Moran index indicates that the changes and the air quality index in the study area are clustered and have a high spatial autocorrelation. The results indicate that although the bad air quality is reduced due to quarantine, major changes are needed in urban management to provide favorable conditions. Contaminants can play a role in transmitting COVID-19 as a carrier of the virus. It is suggested that due to the rise in COVID-19 and temperature in Iran, in future studies, the effect of increased temperature on COVID-19 can be assessed.