Future of the area equipped for irrigation
2014
Valipour, Mohammad
The aim of this paper is the estimation of area equipped for irrigation in the world in 2035 and 2060 using studies of agricultural water management during 1962 to 2011. Among all presented data in the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database, 10 indexes were selected (due to more importance and more availability for all the regions in the world). These indexes are permanent crops to cultivated area (PC, %), rural population to total population (RP, %), total economically active population in agriculture to total economically active population (LF (Agric), %), human development index (HDI), national rainfall index (NRI, mm year⁻¹), value added to gross domestic product (GDP(Agric)) by agriculture (%), irrigation water requirement (IWR, mm year⁻¹), percent of total cultivated area drained (D, %), difference between NRI and irrigation water requirement (mm year⁻¹), and area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area (AI, %). These indexes were analyzed for all five regions in the study area and the amount of area equipped for irrigation to cultivated area (10th index) was estimated by three different scenarios and using the other nine indexes. The results show that changes of area equipped for irrigation are 12.1% to 70.7% and 29.0% to 99.9% from 2011 to 2035 and 2060, respectively.
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