Improved Prediction of Leaf Emergence for Efficacious Crop Protection: Assessing Field Variability in Phyllotherms for Upper Leaves in Winter Wheat and Winter Barley

The choice of the phyllotherm value for predicting leaf emergence under field conditions is pivotal to the success of fungicide-based disease risk management in temperate cereals. In this study, we investigated phyllotherm variability for predicting the emergence of the three uppermost leaves (i.e., three last leaves to emerge) in winter wheat and winter barley fields. Data from four sites representative of wheat and barley growing regions in Luxembourg were used within the PROCULTURE model to predict the emergence of F-2, F-1 and F (F being the flag leaf) during the 2014–2019 cropping seasons. The phyllotherms tested ranged between 100 °Cd and 160 °Cd, in 15 °Cd steps, including the current default value of 130 °Cd. The comparisons between the observed and predicted emerged leaf area were qualitatively evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and Willmott’s index (WI). A phyllotherm of 100 °Cd accurately and reliably predicted the emergence of all three upper leaves under the various environmental conditions and crop cultivars of winter wheat and winter barley over the study period. MAE and RMSE were generally <5% and the WI values were most often ≥0.90 for F-1 and F. For phyllotherm values ≥115 °Cd, the prediction errors generally increased for F-1 and F, with MAE and RMSE exceeding 20% in most cases. F-2 agreement between observed and predicted values was generally similar when using 100 °Cd or 115 °Cd. These results tie in valuable, complementary information regarding the variability of phyllotherms within leaf layers in winter wheat and winter barley in Luxembourg. Accurate and reliable leaf emergence prediction from F-2 to F allows for timely fungicide application, which ensures lasting protection against infections by foliar fungal disease pathogens. Hence, understanding phyllotherms can help ensure timely, environmentally sound, and efficacious fungicide application while increasing the likelihood of improved yields of winter wheat and winter barley.