The Ozone–Climate Penalty: Past, Present, and Future
2013
Rasmussen, D. J. | Hu, Jianlin | Mahmud, Abdullah | Kleeman, Michael J.
Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O₃) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the “O₃–climate penalty” has generally decreased over the past three decades, which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O₃–climate penalty to reductions in NOₓ emissions but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here, we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O₃–climate penalty under varying NOₓ and VOC emissions in both NOₓ-limited and NOₓ-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O₃ precursors will not diminish the O₃–climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOₓ-limited air basin, NOₓ control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O₃–climate penalty and mitigate O₃ pollution, while in a NOₓ-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOₓ and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O₃–climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O₃ concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O₃–climate penalty as NOₓ and VOC emissions evolve in other regions.
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