Probabilistic assessment of the impact of coal seam gas development on groundwater: Surat Basin, Australia | Evaluation probabiliste de l’impact de l’exploitation de gaz de houille Sur les eaux souterraines: Bassin de Surat, Australie Evaluación probabilística del impacto del desarrollo de gas de capa de carbón en el agua subterránea: Cuenca de Surat, Australia 煤层气开发对地下水影响的概率性评价:澳大利亚苏拉特盆地 Avaliação probabilística do impacto do desenvolvimento de gás de veio de carvão nas águas subterrâneas: Bacia de Surat, Austrália

Modelling cumulative impacts of basin-scale coal seam gas (CSG) extraction is challenging due to the long time frames and spatial extent over which impacts occur combined with the need to consider local-scale processes. The computational burden of such models limits the ability to undertake calibration and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. A framework is presented that integrates recently developed methods and tools to address the computational burdens of an assessment of drawdown impacts associated with rapid CSG development in the Surat Basin, Australia. The null space Monte Carlo method combined with singular value decomposition (SVD)-assisted regularisation was used to analyse the uncertainty of simulated drawdown impacts. The study also describes how the computational burden of assessing local-scale impacts was mitigated by adopting a novel combination of a nested modelling framework which incorporated a model emulator of drawdown in dual-phase flow conditions, and a methodology for representing local faulting. This combination provides a mechanism to support more reliable estimates of regional CSG-related drawdown predictions. The study indicates that uncertainties associated with boundary conditions are reduced significantly when expressing differences between scenarios. The results are analysed and distilled to enable the easy identification of areas where the simulated maximum drawdown impacts could exceed trigger points associated with legislative ‘make good’ requirements; trigger points require that either an adjustment in the development scheme or other measures are implemented to remediate the impact. This report contributes to the currently small body of work that describes modelling and uncertainty analyses of CSG extraction impacts on groundwater.