Cropping patterns along an altitudinal gradient and their implications to wildlife conservation in Rombo, Tanzania

Ecosystem and livelihood sustainability of small-scale farmers in Eastern Africa are often challenged by climate change and unsustainable land use practices. Little is known on the small-scale temporal processes of cropping systems in relation to long-term climatic conditions. To understand the climatic influence on the cropping patterns, and its implications to wildlife/elephant conservation, our study used a combination of time-series datasets on crop and climate as well as geo-spatial layers spanning more than three decades. To validate the information analyzed from secondary data, we carried out participatory observation and interviews, whereby about 5% of village households were selected along an altitudinal gradient of Rombo area, Tanzania. We generated land use change maps using Geographical Information System (ArcGIS 10.4) and used Spearman’s correlation analysis to assess the influence of rainfall, temperature, and crop yield on the observed longitudinal changes in the crop types and other land use patterns both within and across altitudinal gradients. We found that perennial crops like coffee and banana concentrated in upper agro-ecological zones, with a clear division line above 1230masl while seasonal crops like maize and beans were mostly cultivated in lowlands (below 1230masl). The results further showed that coffee yields significantly declined with higher average annual minimum temperatures over the last 16 years. Within the same time period, there was a disproportionate shift from coffee to seasonal crop cultivation such as maize and beans. Elephant numbers declined by about 38%, while human settlement area increased by 28% over the last 30 years. We conclude that changes in land use and shifts in climate and cropping patterns have important implications for elephant conservation and sustainability of the ecosystem in Rombo area, Tanzania.