Modelling of climatic changes impact on the growth and fruiting of some plum cultivars in the southern part of Romania
2012
Chitu, E. | Butac, M. | Chitu, V.
In continental temperate areas of Eastern Europe, in the current warming trend, climate accident frequency is becoming increasingly a topic of general interest in fruit farming. To mitigate the negative influences of climatic factors and for accurate zoning, many scientists have made climate based models. The studies were carried on in bearing European plum (Prunus domestica L.) orchards at the Research Institute for Fruit Growing Pitesti. A database of phenological observations was used for first blossom, petal fall as well as fruit ripening for a 11 year period (1999-2009) for 11 plum cultivars, together with weather data taken from a longer period (1969-2009). Link strength between probabilities of the weather data mentioned above and biological parameters and phenophases were evaluated after the values of the simple correlation or determination coefficients. The climate rating estimation model was based on the separation of intervals showing major climatic risks related to the phenological dynamics. As regard the intensity of correlation, between the probability of monthly mean values of some meteorological parameters registration and 41 years included in the study (simples r, 1969-2009), among the months that influence the trees starting in vegetation (February-April), February registered the most significant changes: day-night amplitude and sunshine length period, manifested a rise up tendency, which can determine in the future an earlier coming into the vegetation of the fruit trees. The continuous rising of minimum air temperatures over the summer months (June and July); will facilitate the induction of flower buds, while the number of sunshine hours is not excessive (more than 10 hours/day).
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