The regular pattern and underlying mechanisms of seawater intrusion in the Modaomen channel in the Pearl River Estuary of China

In recent decades, the frequency and severity of inland river seawater intrusion has increased in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) of China. Based on time series of water salinity data, river discharges, tides, and wind records for the period 2003–2015, this study aims to examine the regular pattern and underlying mechanisms of the seawater intrusion in the Modaomen channel of the PRE. Toward this end, the autocorrelation and spectral analysis are used to quantify the periodicity of runoff, tide, and water salinity and to infer the regular patterns of seawater intrusion. The Pearson correlation and the LMG metric are used to examine the effects of influencing factors on seawater intrusion. Results indicate that seawater intrusion in the Modaomen channel has distinct annual (369 days) and half-monthly (14.8 days) cycles, corresponding well with annual and half-monthly tidal cycles. Spatially, the frequency, severity, and periodicity of seawater intrusion decrease with increased landward distance away from the channel mouth. The prevention of seawater intrusion by incoming river flow becomes more remarkable as freshwater flows downstream. Shifts in wind speed and direction can strengthen or weaken seawater intrusion, depending on if wind is in the opposite or same direction of river flow. Further analysis using the LMG metric suggests that river discharge plays a dominant role in governing seawater intrusion. Overall, river discharges, tides, and wind are three major forces triggering the inland river seawater intrusion and account for, respectively, 46%, 15%, and 15% of the variation of water salinity in the Modaomen channel. The study is featured in not only identifying the major factors in driving seawater intrusion but also quantifying their relative contribution. Thus, the findings are important for water resources manager to predict and manage inland river seawater intrusion in the PRE of China.