A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

Guillaume, JosephH. A.; Qureshi, MEjaz; Jakeman, AnthonyJ.

A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules | Une analyse structurée de l’incertitude entourant les impacts modélisés du prélèvement réglementaire d’eau de nappe Un análisis estructurado de la incertidumbre que rodea a los impactos modelados de normas de extracción de agua subterránea 地下水开采条例效应模型不确定性的结构分析 Uma análise estruturada da incerteza associada aos impactes modelados pelas regras de exploração de água subterrânea

2012

Guillaume, JosephH. A. | Qureshi, MEjaz | Jakeman, AnthonyJ.

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.

显示更多 [+]