Statistical Modelling of CO and NO2 Concentrations in the Athens Area - Evaluation of Emission Abatement Policies (7 pp)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.04.299 Goal, Scope and Background This paper describes a statistical modelling approach, suggested as a policy tool in the Athens area for the assessment of the emissions reduction level required to meet the air quality standards for two criteria air pollutants, namely CO and NO2. Methods. More than ten years of hourly CO and NOx-NO2 concentration data measured by the monitoring network of the Hellenic Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works were analyzed and the original dataset has been reduced using a data evaluation procedure. Results and Discussion Seasonal pollutant concentration trends suggested that the reduction of CO and NOx concentrations observed in the beginning of the '90s is almost entirely attributed to the increase of the catalyst-equipped cars during this period. The numerical parameters of an empirical model relating EU standard exceedances with mean annual concentrations were defined and the model was validated using datasets from years that were not used for the estimation of these parameters. This model was used in conjunction with a roll-back equation as a policy tool for the assessment of the effect of different CO and NOx emissions reduction scenarios on air quality standard compliance for CO and NO2. Results predicted with this empirical modelling approach were assessed with monitored data averaged over a 3-year period, giving satisfactory results. Conclusion A methodology suggested for assessing the effects of different emissions reduction scenarios on air quality standard attainment was successfully applied for CO and NO2 in the Athens area. Recommendation and Perspective The proposed methodology can provide a useful tool for the evaluation of policies already in progress as well as the development of future policies for emissions reduction in urban areas with similar characteristics, aiming at air quality standard compliance on a timely manner. Such a methodology could be applied in other urban areas of Greece characterized by dense traffic, therefore assisting the development of national policies in relation to air pollutants for which standard exceedances occur.