Comparing the Export Coefficient Approach with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Predict Phosphorous Pollution: The Kan Watershed Case Study

Water quality protection has become a key concern in water resources development and management. Uncontrolled nutrient input may challenge the quality of some water bodies. This study uses the relatively steep Kan watershed located in the north-west of Tehran (Iran) as an example case study, where an artificial lake is currently under construction for recreational purposes. Two approaches to predict the total annual phosphorous load were assessed: the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the export coefficient approach. River discharge and sediment transport were simulated prior to modeling of the total phosphorous (TP) load in SWAT to make the model more accurate. In addition, an upstream to downstream calibration method was utilized. Findings reveal that the SWAT-simulated phosphorous load had sound Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) values (ENSof 75 % for calibration and ENSof 52 % for validation). The relative error in estimating annual TP load was 7 %. The export coefficient approach assigning coefficients of export for each land use is known as an alternative method that can be used for estimating the TP load. Four sets of export coefficients were selected from the literature to examine their suitability in TP load prediction. The results showed significant errors in TP load prediction, which indicates that export coefficients are likely to be watershed-specific. Likewise, the export coefficients were found to vary through four wet months with errors ranging from 9 % to 33 %. This paper demonstrates that the export coefficient method may estimate the pollution load in the Kan watershed with less data than the advance SWAT model. However, it is associated with a higher level of error.