A decision support system for management planning of Eucalyptus plantations facing climate change
2014
Garcia-Gonzalo, J. | Borges, J. G. | Palma, J. H. N. | Zubizarreta-Gerendiain, A.
• CONTEXT: Climate change studies in Portugal point to warming winters and increase in the dry season length, impacting growth of plants. New tools are needed to increase the effectiveness of forest management planning under climate change. • AIMS: To develop research tools that may help forest managers cope with climate change challenges to long-term planning. These tools should help assess the impact of climate change on the timing and location of forest management options as well as on forest products flows. • METHODS: The proposed tools are based on information system architecture approaches that suggested a “Decision Support System” (DSS) with a modular structure to integrate (1) a management information module; (2) a prescription generator module that integrates a process-based model (Glob3PG); (3) a decision module; (4) a solution report module. To demonstrate the usefulness of the DSS, a eucalyptus forest with 1,722 stands (6,138 ha) in Portugal was considered. Two climate scenarios were used. • RESULTS: Potential wood supply decreased from 2.35 to 2.19 million m³, land value depreciated from 81.1 to 74.7 million Euro and total carbon stock decreased from 228 to 212 tons. • CONCLUSIONS: The DSS demonstrated that the design of optimal management plans should take into account climate change.
显示更多 [+] 显示较少 [-]