Profit stability of mixed dairy and beef production systems of the mountain area of southern Auvergne (France) in the face of price variations: Bioeconomic simulation
2019
Diakite, Zakary | Corson, Michael S. | Brunschwig, Gilles | Baumont, René | Mosnier, Claire | Unité Mixte de Recherche sur les Herbivores - UMR 1213 (UMRH) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS) | Sol Agro et hydrosystème Spatialisation (SAS) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST | Auvergne Region ; French Ministry of Agriculture, Agrifood and Forestry through the Herbivores Mixed Research Unit (National Institute for Agricultural Research and VetAgro-Sup).
Mountain farmers face additional structural constraints (e.g., steep slopes, high elevations, fragmented fields)along with the regular risks inherent to agriculture, such as economic fluctuations. We thus hypothesized thatsimultaneously producing dairy and beef herds (i.e., “mixed cattle systems”) on mountain farms is a goodcompromise between a farm's expected profits and the variation in these profits. To explore the profit stability ofmixed cattle systems in the face of price variations, we used the bioeconomic optimization model Orfee tosimulate one farm strategy: adjusting the number of cattle. The model simulated three mixed cattle systems(dairy and beef herds) and two specialized cattle systems (dairy or beef herd) on two farms in southern Auvergne(France) that differed in agronomic potential, field configurations and animal productivity. A local sensitivityanalysis of beef, milk and feed price was combined with a global sensitivity analysis based on metamodels.Results indicated that the number of cattle was adjusted as a function of resource availability, farm structure,and product prices on the market. Compared to specialized systems, mixed cattle systems usually seemed aneffective strategy to manage economic risk, with good compromise between expected profits and variation inprofits.
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