Grasping the water, energy, and food security nexus in the local context : Case study: Karawang Regency, Indonesia

Despite an abundance in natural and human resources, Indonesia has not been able tosignificantly improve the level of water, energy, and food (WEF) security. Challenges inachieving WEF security targets mostly relate to resource mismanagement, lack ofcoordination, authority imbalance among sectors, and overlapping roles andresponsibility among levels of government. The immature process of the decentralizationhas made these challenges even more complex; it is not easy to unify the vision of localgovernments (i.e. 34 provinces, 416 regencies, 98 cities) with the Regional Head who iselected every 5 years and sometimes brings different goals and development approaches.The lack of information, awareness, coordination and a common framework to bridge thegaps between national and local governments, jeopardizes the attainment of WEF securitytargets which have been set in the national long-term planning (RPJPN) and mid-termplanning (RPJMN). Unfortunately, this complex issue has not received the attention itdeserves, from a scientific perspective nor from a practical implementation point of viewsuch as through laws, policies and planning processes.This research addresses these knowledge and implementation gaps by analysing theinterlinkages among variables in the WEF system using the nexus approach whichintegrates management and governance across sectors and scales. The main objective ofthis research is to grasp the WEF security nexus in the local context and to evaluate theimplications of planned local interventions in WEF sectors by developing a conceptualand quantitative analysis framework and employing system dynamics modelling througha stakeholder engagement and co-development process. The Karawang Regency inIndonesia is chosen as an illustrative case study as it represents all challenges andvariables at the local level of WEF security nexus.The first part of this study identifies knowledge gaps and common critiques on the WEFnexus framework that have emerged since the concept was proposed. It analyses currentimprovements of the WEF nexus concept, applications and impacts during the period of2012-2020. By reviewing 10 existing WEF nexus frameworks, several gaps andomissions as well as their possible improvements are identified. Four principles that mustbe of serious consideration in developing the future WEF nexus framework andimproving the WEF nexus-related studies are proposed, i.e. to make them moreunderstandable, to make them adaptable to many diverse situations, to ensure reliable andvalid data, and to be applicable across scales. The perspective of “from local to global”and locally-based WEF resource management are also suggested to ensure that WEFsecurity can be achieved sustainably in local communities and they will help towardsnational and global targets.Secondly, several strategies and their practical implementation for WEF-related sectorsin the study area are formulated using the composite method of Location Quotient (LQ)and Competitive Position (CP). This method assesses the agglomeration level and growthpotential in each WEF sector, locating them in a four-quadrant matrix. Quadrant I,signifying the advantaged cluster, contains 1 sector (energy-related sector); quadrant II,signifying the potential cluster contains 1 sector (water-related sector) and 2 sub-sectors(estate & horticulture crops and water supply sub-sectors); none of sector in quadrant IIIor capable cluster, while 1 sector (food-related sector) and 4 sub-sectors (food crops,electricity, livestock, and fishery sub-sectors) fall in quadrant IV, the disadvantagedcluster. The analysis shows that the general characteristics of WEF-related sectors in aregion can be clearly distinguished based on its main economic development focus. Thispreliminary economic-based evaluation gives a better understanding and morecomprehensive insights for policy-makers and other stakeholders, although the clearinterrelation among variables and sectors is not assessed at this stage of analysis.The third set of results shows that participatory or group model building is beneficial inassisting local stakeholders to grasp the complexity of the WEF security system. Thegroup model building approach covers all major internal and external factors and drivers,including possible feedback mechanisms and key variables to be further analysed. Aqualitative Karawang WEF security (K-WEFS) model is established with stakeholders,and is composed of six sub-models with water, energy and food sectors as internal factorsand population, economy and ecosystem services as external drivers. The collaborativeaction plan, using system dynamics analysis and group model building, not only can beimplemented in WEF sectors but also other development planning and policy-makingprocess such as infrastructure, trade and services, monetary, transportation etc.Fourthly, building on the qualitative K-WEFS model, a quantitative stock-flow diagram(SFD) is developed. By employing STELLA® professional software, three plannedpolicy interventions in WEF-related sectors are modelled in an integrated way. Theimpacts on the available resources per person (APP) and self-sufficiency levels (SSL) ofresources are analysed in four scenarios, including business as usual and severalcombinations of planned interventions. Implications are based on model simulation, whilepossible practical actions are derived from both model simulation and otherconsiderations, such as local planning ambitions, national programs, local experts andmodeller’s opinion. Several potentially unanticipated and indirect impacts of policyinterventions are also highlighted in this quantitative simulation.Results and findings in this study, derived from the K-WEFS nexus framework areexpected to assist the local planner and decision-makers to deal with challenges in WEFresource management by making trade-offs explicit, building synergies among WEF related sectors and eventually improving the WEF security target’s achievement.