Climate change is predicted to impact the global distribution and richness of pines (genus Pinus) by 2070

Aim: Climate change is altering habitat suitability for many organisms and modifying species ranges at a global scale. Here we explored the impact of climate change on 112 pine species (Pinus), fundamental elements of Northern terrestrial ecosystems. Location: Global. Methods: We applied a novel methodology for species distribution modelling that considers uncertainty in climatic projections and taxon sampling, and incorporates elements of species' recent evolutionary history. We based our niche calculations on climate and soil data and computed projections across multiple algorithms and IPCC scenarios, which were ensembled into one single suitability map. We then used phylogenetic methods to account for recent evolution in climatic requirements by estimating the evolution of climatic niche. Edaphoclimatic and evolutionary analyses were then combined to calibrate the projections in areas showing high uncertainty. We validated our models using naturalized occurrences of invasive pine species. Results: Our models predicted that by 2070, most pine species (58%) might face important reductions of habitat suitability, potentially leading to range losses and a decrease in species richness, particularly in some regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and South North America, albeit migration might mitigate these shifts in some cases. In contrast, our projections showed increased habitat suitability for approx. 20% of species, which may undergo range expansions under climate change. Moreover, the consideration of recent evolutionary trends modified projected scenarios, decreasing range loss and increasing range expansion for some species. The independent validation endorsed our models for many species and the influence of recent evolution in some cases. Conclusions: We predict that climate change will impose drastic changes in pine distribution and diversity across biogeographical regions, but the magnitude and direction of change will vary significantly across regions and taxa. Species-level responses are likely to be influenced by regional conditions and the recent evolutionary history of each taxon.

Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain, Grant/Award Number: CGL2013-47558- P and CGL2016-79950- R

Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport, Grant/Award Number: FPU13/03410

Swiss SNF, Grant/Award Number: #31003A_149508/1

Consejería de Universidad, Investigación e Innovación of the Junta de Andalucía, Grant/Award Number: QUAL21-011