Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]
2023
Jampani, Mahesh | Amarnath, Giriraj | Alahacoon, Niranga
Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures.
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