Associations between body fat anthropometric indices and mortality among individuals with metabolic syndrome

Abstract Background The distribution of body fat and metabolic health may contribute to the onset of metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the associations between body fat anthropometric indices (AIs) and mortality in individuals with MetS remain unclear. Methods Participants aged 18 years or older with MetS were recruited from the NHANES 1999–2018. The body fat anthropometric indices included the a body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI), cardiometabolic index (CMI), visceral adiposity index (VAI), waist triglyceride index (WTI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), and triglyceride‒glucose (TyG) index. MetS was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATPIII) criteria. Mortality data were obtained from the National Death Index through December 31, 2019. Results Data were collected from 8,379 individuals with MetS, with a median follow-up of 8.5 years, of whom 1,698 died from all causes and 568 from the CCD. The random survival forest (RSF) analysis indicated that the ABSI had the strongest predictive power for both all-cause mortality and CCD mortality among the eight body fat AIs. After adjusting for multiple variables, the ABSI was found to be linearly and positively associated with all-cause and CCD mortality in individuals with MetS. Participants in the highest quartile of ABSI had an increased risk of all-cause (HR = 1.773 [1.419–2.215]) and CCD (HR = 1.735 [1.267–2.375]) mortality compared with those in the lowest quartile. Furthermore, the ABSI predicted areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.735, 0.723, 0.718, and 0.725 for all-cause mortality at 3, 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively, and 0.774, 0.758, 0.725, and 0.715 for CCD mortality, respectively. Conclusion Among eight body fat AIs, the ABSI exhibited the strongest predictive power for mortality in individuals with MetS. Higher ABSI values significantly increased all-cause mortality and CCD mortality in participants with MetS.