Nonlinear association between the triglyceride-glucose index and diabetes mellitus in overweight and obese individuals: a cross-sectional retrospective analysis

Abstract Background The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is linked to both the development and progression of diabetes, while obesity remains a significant risk factor for this disease. However, the relationship between the TyG index and overweight or obese diabetes remains unclear. Methods This study was a cross-sectional analysis of data from 40,633 participants with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 24 kg/m2 who were screened from January 2018 to December 2023 at Henan Provincial People’s Hospital. Participants were divided into groups of overweight or obese individuals with diabetes and those without diabetes according to the diabetes diagnostic criteria. The TyG index, the dependent variable, was determined using the equation ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. We explored the association between TyG index and diabetes in overweight or obese individuals through multivariate logistic regression, subgroup analysis, generalized additive models, smoothed curve fitting, and analysis of threshold effects. Results Patients who were overweight or obese and had diabetes had higher TyG index levels than those without diabetes. After adjusting for confounders, our findings indicated a significant association between the TyG index and the risk of diabetes in overweight or obese individuals [odds ratio (OR) = 7.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.98–7.81]. There was a J-shaped nonlinear association between TyG index and diabetes. When TyG index was > 4.46, the risk of diabetes increased sharply. Notably, a high baseline TyG index (Q4 group) correlated with a notably greater risk of diabetes than did the Q1 group, with an OR of 22.72 (95% CI: 20.52–25.16). Subgroup analysis revealed that the association between TyG and diabetes was stronger in females than in males (OR = 7.57, 95% CI: 6.76–8.48,), more significant in individuals with a BMI of 24–28 kg/m2 than in those with a BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2 (OR = 8.40, 95% CI: 7.83–9.02), and increased with age (OR = 8.15, 95% CI: 7.25–9.17) (all P for interaction < 0.001). Conclusion Among overweight or obese individuals, a higher TyG index is associated with an elevated risk of diabetes, especially when TyG is > 4.46. Furthermore, factors such as sex, age, and BMI significantly influence the risk of diabetes in overweight or obese individuals. Specifically, older women with a BMI of 24–28 kg/m2 are at a greater risk of diabetes under similar TyG index conditions.