基于期货价格的食用植物油 全国统一大市场建设研究Construction of the unified national market for edible vegetable oils based on the futures prices
2024
张红星1,2 ZHANG Hongxing1,2
为促进食用植物油全国统一大市场建设，依据“一价定律”理论，基于期货价格数据，运用协整检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析、方差分解分析等计量方法，分析食用植物油市场多种油品的均衡比价关系，并提出相关建议。结果表明：在期货价格引导下，通过套利机制的作用，多种食用植物油之间价格信息相互联通，存在长期均衡关系，多种油品的供给、需求、价格动态协调，共同构成一个统一大市场；从加强油脂油料期货市场建设、积极推动期货市场功能宣讲和利用、提升大豆和油料的国内生产能力、广泛挖掘多种食用植物油的供给潜力和有效维护进口环节经济利益等角度提出促进食用植物油全国统一大市场建设的建议。To promote the construction of a unified national market for edible vegetable oils, according to the theory of "one-price law", based on the data of the futures prices of edible vegetable oils, using cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition analysis were used to analyze the equilibrium price relationship between a variety of edible vegetable oils, and relevant suggestions were proposed. The results showed that it was interconnected that the price information between a variety of edible vegetable oils with the guidance of futures prices and the arbitrage mechanism, and they had a long-term equilibrium relationship. There was a dynamic coordination relationship between the supply, the demand and the price of a variety of vegetable oils, and they together formed a unified market. The suggestions such as strengthening the construction of the oils and the oilseeds futures markets, actively promoting the promotion and utilization of futures market functions, improving the domestic production capacity of soybean and oilseeds, widely tapping into the supply potential of various edible vegetable oils and effectively safeguarding the economic interests of the import link were put forward to promote the construction of a unified national market for edible vegetable oils.
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