中国城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量的 趋势预测与影响因素分析Trend prediction and influencing factors analysis of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption of urban residents in China

摘要：城镇居民食用植物油消费量变化趋势影响着城乡居民整体食用植物油消费走向，深入研究其变化趋势和影响因素，可以为我国制定科学合理的粮油供给安全战略和相关产业发展政策提供参考。基于2000—2020年我国城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量及其影响因素数据，从宏观角度出发，利用城市化率、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、城镇食用植物油零售价格指数、消费习惯4个主要因素构建灰色GM（1，5）预测模型，并对2021—2025年城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量进行预测。结果表明：构建的模型平均相对误差绝对值为4.94%，满足模型预测要求；应用该模型进行预测发现，2021—2025年我国城镇居民人均食用植物油消费量恢复到10 kg以上，且呈小幅增长态势，叠加持续增长的城镇人口数量，我国油料油脂进口量将进一步增加。为此，提出了引导油脂消费结构调整、加强对食用油的质量安全监督、提高食用油利用效率和杜绝浪费等政策性建议。 The change trend of edible vegetable oil consumption of urban residents affects the overall consumption trend of edible vegetable oil of urban and rural residents. An in-depth study of its change trend and its influencing factors can provide a reference to China for formulating a scientific and reasonable grain and oil supply security strategy and related industrial development policies. Based on the datas of per capita edible vegetable oil consumption and influencing factors of Chinese urban residents from 2000 to 2020, a grey GM (1,5) prediction model was constructed from a macro perspective by using four main factors of urbanization rate, per capita income of urban households, urban edible vegetable oil retail price index and consumption habits, and the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents from 2021 to 2025 was predicted. The results showed that the absolute value of average relative error of the model constructed was 4.94%, which met the prediction requirements of the model. Applying this model for prediction, it was found that the per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil by urban residents in China would recover to over 10 kg from 2021 to 2025, with a slight growth trend. Coupled with the continuous growth of urban populations, China′s oilseed and oil imports would further increase. Therefore, policy recommendations was proposed, such as guiding the adjustment of oil consumption structure, strengthening quality and safety supervision of edible oil, improving the efficiency of edible oil utilization and eliminating waste.